Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas,fell by 1.2 percent in October 2023 to 119.2 (2016=100), after a slight decrease of 0.1 percent in September. Despite the recent decline, the LEI grew by 2.1 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2023, following a contraction of 0.3 percent over the previous six-month period from October 2022 to April 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, rose by 0.2 percent in October 2023 to 110.3 (2016=100), marking the fifth consecutive month of increases. The CEI grew by 1.3 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2023, after growing at a rate of 1.7 percent over the previous six-months.

“The Brazil LEI fell in October after a slight dip last month,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “The decline in the LEI was attributed to weakness in almost all components. After increases between March and August of this year, the LEI now suggests that the pace of growth in the Brazilian economy may moderate near term. While current economic activity (CEI) still shows favorable conditions, monthly gains are indicating signs of a slowdown, as reflected by a more subdued growth trajectory on a six-month basis. The Conference Board expects that real GDP in Brazil will expand by 3.0 percent year-over-year in 2023, but moderate going into 2024 and expand by just 1.3 percent in that year.”

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI fell in October

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

While the six-month growth rate in the LEI remains resilient, widespread weaknesses in October signal possible softening ahead 

The trajectory of the Brazil LEI suggests slowing growth ahead

*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil

Together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre