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For Release 10:00 AM ET, October 15, 2024
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, inched up by 0.2% in September 2024 to 125.0 (2016=100), reversing the downwardly revised 0.2% decrease in August. Overall, the LEI expanded by 0.9% over the six-month period between March and September 2024, a slower pace than the 1.3% growth over the previous six-month period between September 2023 and March 2024.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, declined by 2.5% in September 2024 to 112.4 (2016=100), more than offsetting a 1.9% increase in August. The CEI also decreased over the six-month period between March and September 2024 by 0.6% after increasing by 2.9% over the previous six-month period.
“The Brazil LEI inched up in September driven by improvements in the terms of trade, exports, and consumer expectations,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “However, the rebound was limited by negative contribution from all financial components and business expectations in both the manufacturing and service sectors. In addition, the semiannual and annual growth rates of the Index showed little change in September. Overall, the Index continued to signal moderating activity ahead after a stronger than expected first half of the year. Accordingly, and also taking into account the September interest rate hike by the Central Bank in response to inflationary pressures, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth to slow in the second half of 2024 and reach 2.9% for the year as a whole.”
The next release is scheduled for Thursday, November 14, 2024, at 10 A.M. ET.
*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in March 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.
*CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in March 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around six months.
The eight components of the Leading Economic Index® for Brazil are:
The six components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Brazil are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
ABOUT FGV IBRE
Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre
With graph and summary table
October 15, 2024
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