Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, declined by 0.2 percent in September 2023 to 120.3 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.5 percent in August. The LEI grew by 3.0 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2023, a reversal from a decline of 0.6 percent over the previous six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas, decreased by 0.1 percent in September 2023 to 109.6 (2016=100), after falling by 0.2 percent in August. The CEI rose by 1.3 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2023, after growing at a similar rate of 1.2 percent over the previous six-months.

“The Brazil LEI fell in September after rising steadily over the past six months,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate at The Conference Board. “The slight decrease in the LEI can mostly be attributed to reduced optimism among survey expectations for manufacturing, services, and consumers. The LEI suggests that the pace of growth in the Brazilian economy may moderate in the near term. While the Brazilian government announces expansionary fiscal approaches and the central bank continues to tighten monetary policy, market and consumer responses to these conflicting policies may weigh on the economy. The Conference Board expects that real GDP in Brazil will grow by 3.0 percent year-over-year in 2023 but will start to moderate towards the end of 2023 and into 2024.”

The Conference Board/Fundação Getulio Vargas Brazil LEI dipped in September

 *CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

Non-financial components drove the slight decrease in the LEI in September 

 The trajectory of the Brazil LEI is starting to reverse, suggesting slower growth ahead

 *CODACE has determined that the recession beginning in February 2020 ended in the second quarter of 2020. We will update our business cycle chronology when the monthly trough date is available

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Brazil

Together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI): The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by approximately 6 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Brazil, together with Fundação Getulio Vargas (TCB/FGV Brazil LEI) include: Swap Rate - 1 year*, Ibovespa - Bovespa Index, Manufacturing Survey - Expectations Index, Services Sector Survey - Expectations Index, Consumers Survey - Expectations Index, Terms of Trade – Index, Physical Production - Durables Consumer Goods – Index, and the Exports - Quantum - Index.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org

ABOUT FGV IBRE

Created in 1944, FGV is a Brazilian private higher education institution, think tank and producer of statistics, with a mission "to foster Brazil’s socioeconomic development." The Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE) is FGV´s arm with the mission to produce and disseminate high-quality economic statistics and studies that are relevant to improve policies and private action in Brazil. www.fgv.br/ibre