Global Leading Indicators

New York, September 26, 2022…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for China decreased by 0.3 percent in August 2022 to 165.1 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent decline in July. In addition, the LEI contracted by 4.0 percent from February to August of 2022, a reversal from its 4.6 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for China increased by 0.3 percent in August 2022 to 140.0 (2016=100), after a 0.4 percent increase in July. The CEI contracted by 0.3 percent in the six-month period between February and August 2022, a reversal from its 5.6 percent growth between August 2021 and February 2022.

“The China LEI declined for a sixth consecutive month, pointing to persistent recession risks in the months ahead,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The six-month growth rate of the LEI dipped further into negative territory. The largest negative contributor to the index was consumer expectations, reflecting the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks on consumers’ outlook and the economy. Rising new COVID-19 cases, slowing global demand, and a contracting housing market will continue to weigh on the growth outlook for China.”

Decline in China LEI reflects worsening economic outlook 

Weakness in consumer expectations and the logistics prosperity index more than offset positive contributions from financial loans and machinery & transport equipment imports 

The China LEI suggests there is persistent recession risk 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for China: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for China include Consumer Expectation Index, PMI: Mfg: New Export Order, 5000 Industrial Enterprises Survey, Logistics Prosperity Index, Loan: Medium & Long Term, Floor Space Started, City Labor Market: Demand, and Imports: Machinery and Transport Equipment.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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