Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area decreased by 0.5 percent in August 2022 to 113.1 (2016=100), following a decrease of 0.7 percent in July. The LEI declined by 2.8 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, in contrast to the increase of 4.2 percent over the previous six-months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Euro Area increased by 0.1 percent in August 2022 to 106.6 (2016=100), following no change in July. The CEI grew by 0.4 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, following an increase of 1.2 percent from August 2021 to February 2022.

“The Euro Area LEI has declined in August for its sixth consecutive month since February 2022,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “ As interest rates rise to counter high inflation, the impending energy crisis in the coming winter months raises the risks of a recession in the Euro Area economy. The Conference Board now projects that year-over-year real GDP growth will slow to about 0.2 percent in 2023, down from 3.2 percent in the previous year, and the Euro Area may experience a mild recession starting in the final quarter of 2022.” 

The Euro Area LEI declined for the sixth consecutive month in August

Worsening consumer expectations and falling manufacturing orders led the recent decline in the LEI for Euro Area

The recent trajectory of the LEI points to worsening economic prospects and increasing risk of recession  

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Euro Area: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 1 month. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the Euro Area include: ECB Yield Spread, Consumer Expectation of General Economy, Manufacturing New Orders, Volume of Order Books, Business Expectations Survey, Eurostoxx Index, Systemic Stress Composite Indicator, Building Permits.

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About The Conference Board

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