Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, August 12, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area fell by 0.7 percent in July 2024 to 96.7 (2016=100), following a similar 0.7 percent drop in June. The LEI contracted by 3.6 percent over the six-month period from January to July 2024, a lower rate of decline than the 5.0 percent contraction over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the Euro Area inched up by 0.1 percent in July 2024 to 108.7 (2016=100), the same growth rate as in June. The CEI grew by 0.5 percent over the six-month period from January to July 2024, slightly up from the 0.2 percent growth over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for the Euro Area fell again in July, continuing the downward trend that began in March 2022,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “All components, but the systemic stress indicator, contributed negatively to the LEI in July. The negative yield spread, weak orders indicators, and depressed consumer expectations weighed on the leading index in each of the past sixteen months. Consequently, the trajectory of the Index semiannual and annual changes remained strongly negative and recession risks elevated. However, further monetary easing by the ECB in September and December is expected to help curb growth headwinds going forward. Overall, The Conference Board projects annual real GDP growth for the Euro Area at around 0.8 percent in 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, September 12, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.

The Euro Area LEI continued to decline in July

All components, save the systemic stress indictor, fueled the weakness in the Euro Area LEI last month

The Euro Area LEI six-month growth rate continued to imply potential recession risks in July

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the Euro Area

The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.

The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around two months.

The eight components of Leading Economic Index® for the Euro Area are:

• ECB Minimum Bid Yield Spread
• Consumer Expectations of the General Economic Situation
• EURO STOXX® Price Index
• Markit® Manufacturing New Orders
• Markit® Business Expectations Index (Services)
• Volume of Order Books
• Index of Residential Building Permits
• Systemic Stress Composite Indicator

The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for the Euro Area are:

• Industrial Production
• Employment
• Retail Sales
• Manufacturing Sales

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead^®. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org