Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area decreased by 0.3 percent in May 2022 to 115.3 (2016=100), following no change in April 2022. The LEI grew by 1.1 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Euro Area increased by 0.2 percent in May 2022 to 106.3 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent increase in April 2022. The CEI grew by 0.7 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022.

“The LEI for the Euro Area decreased in May suggesting economic growth could slow further amid downside risks from rising energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks linked in part to the war in Ukraine,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “While The Conference Board still projects real GDP growth of about 2.7 percent year-over-year for 2022, this represents a downgrade from 3.8 percent forecasted before the war.” 

The Euro Area LEI declined in May reflecting increasing headwinds from rising food and energy prices, and supply chain disruptions

The year-over-year growth rate of the LEI suggests risks to the outlook may be rising in 2022

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Euro Area: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 1 month. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the Euro Area include: ECB Yield Spread, Consumer Expectation of General Economy, Manufacturing New Orders, Volume of Order Books, Business Expectations Survey, Eurostoxx Index, Systemic Stress Composite Indicator, Building Permits.

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