Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for the Euro Area fell by 1.1 percent in September 2022 to 111.8 (2016=100), following a decrease of 0.5 percent in August. The LEI declined by 3.4 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, more than offsetting the 2.8 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for the Euro Area increased slightly by 0.1 percent in September 2022 to 106.6 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent gain in August. The CEI grew by 0.5 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, following an increase of 1.0 percent from September 2021 to March 2022.

“The Euro Area LEI fell sharply in September, marking its seventh consecutive monthly decline,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “?The yield spread and the volume of order books in manufacturing were the only positive contributors to the index. The impending energy crisis, war in Ukraine, and tightening monetary policy all continue to weigh on economic prospects for the Euro Area. The Conference Board projects that the Euro Area is likely to experience a recession in the final quarter of 2022 and first quarter of 2023, and for year-over-year GDP growth to slow to 0.2 percent in 2023.” 

The Euro Area LEI declined sharply in September

Negative contributions from most components resulted in the decline in the Euro Area LEI 

Recent declines in the LEI point to elevated risk of recession in the coming months

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Euro Area: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 1 month. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for the Euro Area include: ECB Yield Spread, Consumer Expectation of General Economy, Manufacturing New Orders, Volume of Order Books, Business Expectations Survey, Eurostoxx Index, Systemic Stress Composite Indicator, Building Permits.

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