Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for France rose by 0.4 percent in April 2022 to 113.4 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decline in March 2022. The LEI grew by 1.4 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022 faster than its 0.6 percent growth rate between April and October 2021.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France remained unchanged in April 2022 at 107.1 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent increase in March 2022. The CEI grew by 0.5 percent in the six-month period between October 2021 and April 2022 slower than its 2.9 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period.

“With the April gain, the LEI for France suggests the recent contraction in real GDP may be temporary and slow economic growth could resume in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The yield spread and housing permits made positive contributions to the index again, offsetting worsening unemployment claims and production expectations. At the same time, downside risks to the economic outlook remain due to high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing global growth in 2022.”

Rising trajectory of the France LEI suggests the economy should continue growing in the short-term

The recent trajectory of the LEI points to continued economic growth, but downside risks remain

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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