Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France rose by 0.5 percent in August 2022 to 116.5 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in July. The LEI grew by 3.1 percent in the six-month period between February and August 2022, faster than its growth of 1.3 percent from August 2021 to February 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France increased by 0.3 percent in August 2022 to 107.7 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in July. The CEI grew by 0.7 percent in the six-month period between February and August 2022, similar to its 0.8 percent growth over the previous six-months.

“The LEI for France continued its upward trajectory in August, pointing to moderate economic growth in the short term,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “However, financial components of the LEI, especially the yield spread component, was again the primary driver of the gain in the LEI, whereas nonfinancial components such as industrial new orders made negative contributions. Persistently high inflation, rising interest rates in the Euro Area, and slowing Euro Area growth could create headwinds to economic growth prospects for France.  The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 2.6 percent for 2022, but the economy is projected to slow by the end of the year and into 2023.”

LEI suggests moderate economic growth to continue in the near term, but headwinds could curb growth into 2023 

The yield spread remains positive and was the largest contributor to the LEI’s gain

The growth rate of the LEI picked up, but slowing activity in the Euro Area poses challenges ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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