Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France declined by 0.2 percent in July 2023 to 119.1 (2016=100), after a 0.3 percent increase in June, based on revised data. The LEI grew by 1.2 percent in the six-month period between January and July 2023, slightly slower than the 1.5 percent growth over the previous six-month period from July 2022 to January 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France increased by 0.2 percent to 110.1 in July 2023 (2016=100), after rising by 0.1 percent in June. The CEI grew by 0.5 percent during the six-month period between January and July 2023, slightly slower than the 0.8 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

“Based on revised data, the France LEI declined moderately in July after steady incremental gains since the beginning of 2023,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Nearly all components of the France LEI expanded on a six-month basis, but production expectations continue to lag. The yield spread is also contributing negatively, due to the rise in short-term rates amid tightening financial conditions. The trajectory of the France LEI is positive, but trending downward, suggesting modest growth ahead. The Conference Board predicts that real GDP growth will expand by 0.9 percent year-over-year in 2023, a slight downward revision from 1.0 percent previously forecasted, and down from 2.5 percent growth in 2022.”

The France LEI declined in July 

Components of the France LEI have largely strengthened over the last six months except production expectations

Annual growth of the France LEI has moderated, suggesting modest growth ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 12 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org