Global Leading Indicators

For Release 9:30 AM ET, August 20, 2024

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France fell by 0.3 percent in June 2024 to 109.3 (2016=100), after declining by 0.5 percent in May. As a result, the LEI contracted by 2.9 percent over the first half of 2024, a larger contraction than the 1.7 percent decline over the second half of 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France improved slightly by 0.1 percent to 111.4 (2016=100) in June 2024, after remaining unchanged in May. Over the first six months of 2024, The CEI grew by 0.4 percent, a continuation of the 0.3 percent gain over the second half of the last year.

“The France LEI decreased again in June and has been trending downward for almost a year,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “June’s decline in the LEI was driven by negative contributions from the yield spread and the decline in equity prices ahead of the snap parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, the rest of the components were essentially unchanged with Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, and Industrial New Orders that weighed on the Index in previous months turning to neutral contributions. The semiannual trajectory of the France LEI continue to warns of headwinds ahead for the French economy. The Conference Board currently expects GDP to grow by about 1% in 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, September 18, 2024, at 9:30 A.M. ET.