Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for France rose by 0.6 percent in June 2022 to 114.9 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in May. The LEI grew by 2.5 percent in the first half of 2022, much faster than its growth of 0.1 percent in the second half of 2021.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France rose by 0.2 percent in June 2022 to 107.5 (2016=100), after a 0.2 percent increase in May. The CEI grew by 0.6 percent in the six-month period between December 2021 and June 2022, much slower than its growth of 1.6 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for France increased in June and remains on an upward trajectory suggesting continued economic growth in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “A large positive contribution from the yield spread drove the gain, and more than offsets negative contributions from stock prices, building permits, and new unemployment claims. While high inflation, rising interest rates, and slowing Euro Area growth continue to pose downside risks to the economic outlook for France, rising exports and investment buoyed the economy in the first half of the year. The Conference Board has upgraded its forecast of year-over-year real GDP growth to 2.6 percent for 2022 from 2.3 percent, but growth in 2023 is expected to slow to 0.6 percent next year, a downgrade from 1.1 percent.”

Rising trajectory of the France LEI suggests that economic growth should continue, and could pick up in the short-term

The widening yield spread was the largest contributor to the LEI, but monetary tightening is an economic headwind around the corner

The growth rate of the LEI points to increased economic growth

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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