Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France ticked up by 0.1 percent in June 2023 to 117.9 (2016=100), after a 0.2 percent decline in May. The LEI grew by 0.4 percent in the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023, but at a much slower pace than the 1.8 percent growth over the previous six-month period from June to December 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France remained unchanged in June 2023 at 109.8 (2016=100), after rising by 0.1 percent in May. The CEI grew by 0.3 percent during the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023, after increasing by 0.8 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The France LEI ticked up in June, after declines over the past two months,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Nonfinancial components of the France LEI increased in June, led by industrial new orders, unemployment claims, and building permits, which more than offset negative contributions from stock prices and the yield spread. The trajectory of the France LEI is downward, suggesting moderate growth ahead. Indeed, elevated inflation and tighter financial conditions may remain headwinds to growth. The Conference Board predicts that real GDP growth will expand by 1.0 percent year-over-year in 2023, an upward revision from 0.7 percent previously forecasted, but down from 2.5 percent in 2022.”

The France LEI ticked up in June after declining in previous two months 

Nonfinancial components of the France LEI increased in June, more than offsetting weakness in financial components

Decreasing momentum in the France LEI suggests moderating growth ahead 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 12 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org