Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for France declined by 0.1 percent in March 2022 to 113.3 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in February 2022. The LEI grew by 1.5 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022. 

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France increased by 0.1 percent in March 2022 to 107.4 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in February 2022. The CEI grew by 1.0 percent in the six-month period between September 2021 and March 2022. 

“Despite the slight decrease in March, the LEI for France points to continuing, albeit slower, economic growth in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Weakness in most of the components offset positive contributions from the yield spread and housing permits. Moreover, rising risks to the economic outlook due to the war in Ukraine could slow economic growth further. The Conference Board projects 2.7 percent year-over-year growth for France in 2022, and  1.5 percent growth next year.”

France LEI ticked down in March but remains on a rising trajectory, which suggests the economy should continue growing in the short-term

The recent trajectory of the LEI points to continued economic growth, but headwinds from the war in Ukraine may curb the pace in the near term

 The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France before and after benchmark revision

 The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France before and after benchmark revision

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable. 

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/ 

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