Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France increased by 0.4 percent in October 2022 to 117.2 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in September. The LEI grew by 3.1 percent in the six-month period between April and October 2022, an acceleration from 1.7 percent growth over the previous six-months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France remained unchanged in October 2022 at 107.9 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.2 percent (an upward revision) in September. The CEI increased by 0.7 percent during the six-month period between April and October 2022, after growing by 0.5 percent between October 2021 and April 2022.

“The LEI for France continued its upward trend in October after slight upward revisions to previous months,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “On balance, the growth rate of the LEI has moderated slightly from this summer. High inflation and a potential recession in the Euro Area still pose risks to economic growth prospects for France. Looking ahead, The Conference Board projects growth to stagnate in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. Yet, France may narrowly avoid recession in 2023.”

The France LEI continues to climb

Despite a decline in building permits, manufacuring indicators improved slightly in October 

Nothwithstanding positive growth this year, inflation and slowing activity in the Euro Area still pose a challenge

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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