Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France rose by 0.1 percent in September 2022 to 116.4 (2016=100), following a 0.5 percent increase in August. The LEI grew by 2.9 percent in the six-month period between March and September 2022, an improvement from the growth of 1.3 percent over the previous six-months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France decreased slightly by 0.1 percent in September 2022 to 106.7 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in August. The CEI declined by 0.3 percent in the six-month period between March and September 2022, a reversal from its 0.7 percent growth between September 2021 and March 2022.

“The LEI for France continued rising, but the rapid improvement in the index this year may be stalling and suggests the recent better-than-expected performance of the economy may be short-lived,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Non-financial components of the LEI for France, such as industrial new orders, have been making persistently negative contributions this year. High inflation, rising interest rates in the Euro Area, and slowing growth in the Euro Area more broadly, pose risks to economic growth prospects for France.  The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 2.5 percent for 2022 (revised down slightly from 2.6 percent), but economic growth is projected to slow further in the second half of the year and into 2023.”

The France LEI continues to rise

The yield spread was the largest contributor to the LEI’s gain, amid weaknesses across non-financial indicators 

The growth rate of the LEI remained positive, but slowing activity in the Euro Area poses challenges ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 11 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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