Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for France declined by 0.4 percent in September 2023 to 118.3 (2016=100), after ticking down by 0.1 percent in August. The LEI also declined by 0.3 percent in the six-month period between March and September 2023, following 1.4 percent growth over the previous six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for France ticked up by 0.1 percent to 110.2 (2016=100) in September 2023, after remaining unchanged in August. The CEI grew by 0.5 percent during the six-month period between March and September 2023, a continuation of the 0.4 percent rise over the previous six-month period.

“The France LEI declined in September and the six-month growth trajectory of the index has begun to turn negative following an extended rise,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Recent weakness in the France LEI was led by the yield spread, new unemployment claims, and building permits. The declining trajectory of the France LEI implies possible moderation of economic growth in the near term. Nonetheless, The Conference Board predicts that real GDP will expand by 0.9 percent year-over-year in 2023, with growth potentially picking up in 2024 as inflationary pressures ease.”

 The declining trajectory of the France LEI suggests moderating economic growth in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for France

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 12 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for France include: Yield Spread - 10 year minus short-term rate#, Stock Price, Building Permits, New Unemployment Claims, Industrial New Orders, Industry Survey: Production Expectations, and Ratio Price/Labor Cost.

#The short-term rates used are Day-to-Day Loan rate, Euribor, and Ester through the history of this variable.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org