Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany increased by 0.2 percent in August 2022 to 91.6 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.9 percent in July. The LEI declined by 5.2 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, a larger decline than the 2.2 percent contraction over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany decreased by 0.2 percent in August 2022 to 103.5 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent gain in July. The CEI contracted by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2022, after a 0.9 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Germany ticked up in August, after persistent declines over the past several months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “However, the LEI for Germany has yet to recover substantially, suggesting growth prospects in 2023 are still facing headwinds. The European Central Bank’s rate hikes to counter high inflation and energy supply disruptions over the winter increase the likelihood of a recession in the near-term. The Conference Board year-on-year real GDP growth for Germany could reach 1.6 percent in 2022, but growth is likely to stall in the second half of the year and dip into negative territory going into 2023.”

The LEI points to declining growth prospects heading into 2023

Weaknesses have become more widespread among leading indicators in the last six months 

The Germany LEI suggests recession may be imminent in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

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About The Conference Board

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