Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany decreased by 1.0 percent in July 2022 to 91.3 (2016=100), after decreasing by 1.1 percent in June. The LEI declined by 5.7 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, following a 2.2 percent contraction over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany increased by 0.2 percent in July 2022 to 103.7 (2016=100), after remaining unchanged in June. The CEI grew by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, after a 0.6 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Germany decreased again in July and the persistent declines over the past several months suggest growth in 2023 could turn negative,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “Amid high inflation, the European Central Bank’s rate hikes, and energy supply disruptions, a recession appears imminent. The Conference Board year-on-year real GDP growth for Germany could reach 1.6 percent in 2022, but growth is likely to stall in the third quarter and dip into negative territory in the ‘fourth and first quarters.”

The LEI points to growing recession risks in  late 2022, early 2023

Consumers are feeling the effects of higher prices and weaknesses have become more widespread 

The Germany LEI suggests recession may be imminent in the near term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

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About The Conference Board

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