Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany decreased by 0.4 percent in June 2022 to 92.9 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.7 percent in May. The LEI declined by 3.7 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, following a 2.3 percent contraction over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany remained unchanged in June 2022 at 103.5 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in May. The CEI grew by 0.2 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, after a 0.1 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Germany fell for a fifth consecutive month suggesting weaker growth in the second half of 2022 as well as growing risk of recession by yearend,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “High inflation, rising interest rates, and uncertainty about energy supplies are creating strong headwinds to growth in the near-term. While The Conference Board still projects year-on-year real GDP growth of 1.6 percent in 2022, the persistent decline in the LEI suggests the risk of a downturn later in the year are increasing.”

The LEI points to increasing risks to economic growth in the second half of 2022

Weaknesses among leading indicators have become more widespread 

The LEI suggests slower growth and rising risk of recession

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

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About The Conference Board

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