Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany increased by 0.2 percent in June 2023 to 91.6 (2016=100), after declining by 0.2 percent in May. The LEI grew by 1.1 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, a reversal from a contraction of 2.7 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany declined moderately by 0.1 percent in June 2023 to 104.7 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.3 percent in May. The CEI grew by 0.6 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, following a 0.2 percent increase over the previous six-month period from June to December 2022.

“The LEI for Germany increased moderately in June,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Nonfinancial components drove the uptick in the LEI for June, led by new orders for investment goods industries. While the trajectory of the Germany LEI has shown a steady increase from the recession signal in 2022, the annual growth rate of the LEI remains negative, suggesting headwinds to the recovery ahead. Taken together, The Conference Board expects sluggish, but positive, economic growth in the second half of 2023 following a recession at the end of 2022 and stagnation since. Germany’s real GDP is projected to contract by 0.2 percent year-over-year in 2023, which is an upward revision from a contraction of 0.6 percent previously forecasted.”

The LEI for Germany increased moderately in June 

Nonfinancial components drove the increase in the LEI for June, led by new orders for investment goods industries

The annual growth rate of the LEI for Germany remains negative, suggesting headwinds to the recovery ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org