Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Germany declined by 1.2 percent in September 2022 to 90.2 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.1 percent in August. The LEI declined by 5.4 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, an acceleration of the 3.7 percent contraction over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany ticked up by 0.1 percent in September 2022 to 103.6 (2016=100), after a 0.1 percent decrease in August. The CEI gained 0.1 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, after a 0.8 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Germany continued its downward trend in September, suggesting recession risks remained elevated in the second half of this year,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “Growth prospects in 2023 are still facing headwinds from high inflation, energy supply disruptions, and a likely broader recession throughout the Euro Area. The Conference Board projects that growth stalled in the second half of the year and will turn negative by year-end.”

The LEI points to significant challenges to growth heading into 2023

Widespread weaknesses among leading indicators have intensified in the last six months 

The declining trajectory of the Germany LEI suggests recession may be imminent in the near term 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

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About The Conference Board

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