Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany fell by 0.9 percent in September 2023 to 89.8 (2016=100), after declining by 0.8 percent in August. The LEI contracted by 1.5 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2023, after a 0.2 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Germany declined by 0.3 percent in September 2023 to 104.2 (2016=100), after ticking down by 0.1 percent in August. The CEI also fell by 0.3 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2023, partially reversing a 0.4 percent increase over the previous six-month period from September 2022 to March 2023.

“The LEI for Germany fell for a second consecutive month in September,” said Allen Li, Associate Economist at The Conference Board. “The Germany LEI has been negative for most of this year. In September, new orders for investment goods fueled the decline in LEI, followed by the yield spread, stock prices, and consumer confidence. The Germany LEI is currently painting a picture of an economy with little momentum, suggesting headwinds to economic growth in the near term. The Conference Board currently estimates Germany’s real GDP to contract by 0.4 percent year-over-year in 2023, but to pick up modestly in 2024.”

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Germany: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The seven components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Germany include: New Orders, Yield 10-Year Minus 3-Month Time Deposits Rate, Consumer Confidence Index, Inventory Change, New Residential Construction Orders, Stock Price Index, and Gross Enterprises and Properties Income.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org