Global Leading Indicators

This month’s release of the composite economic indexes incorporates annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India decreased by 0.1 percent in December 2022 to 150.7 (2016=100), following a 1.7 percent increase in November. The LEI improved by 1.9 percent in the six-month period from June to December 2022, slower than the 5.0 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India decreased by 1.8 percent in December 2022 to 141.5 (2016=100), following a 2.1 percent increase in November. The CEI decreased by 8.3 percent in the six-month period from June to December 2022, a sharp slowdown from the 15.8 percent increase in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, which reflected a rapid rebound from the pandemic induced slowdown in 2021.

“The LEI for India decreased slightly in December, potentially pointing to weak economic performance in the coming months,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The LEI for India suggests economic growth may falter in 2023 as headwinds persist. Declines in the real effective exchange rate and merchandise exports more than offset slight gains in every other component. The pessimistic signal from the LEI reflects downside risks such as high inflation, declining international demand, and increasing recession risks globally which may weigh on economic growth in India. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth will slow to 4.6 percent in 2023, from 7.9 in 2022.”

Over the past six months, financial component gains more than offset broad declines in non-financial components

The recent trajectory of the India LEI, in conjunction with real GDP, points to moderating economic growth

The composite business cycle indexes pre- and post- benchmark revisions: 1990-present

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 1 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector, Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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