Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India declined by 0.7 percent in July 2023 to 152.5 (2016=100), after increasing by 1.1 percent in June. Nonetheless, the LEI rose by 2.5 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2023, faster than the 1.9 percent growth rate over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India declined by 1.5 percent in July 2023 to 141.2 (2016=100), following a 1.4 percent decrease in June. Despite last month’s decline, the CEI improved by 3.1 percent during the six-month period from January to July 2023. – This was a partial recovery from the 4.5 percent contraction over the prior six-month period between July 2022 and January of 2023.

“The India LEI fell in July based on preliminary data, after improving over the prior three months” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The decline in LEI was fueled by lower bank credit to the commercial sector, weaker merchandise exports, and a reduction in cargo handled. A slowdown in external demand was the main driver of weakness in LEI, but India’s growth should continue in 2023. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 5.8 in 2023 and 5.0 percent in 2024.”

The India LEI fell in July after a streak of increases in the second quarter

Tighter credit to the commercial sector and weaker exports drove July’s decline

The India LEI year-over-year has been positive but moving sideways over the past three months

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org