Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 0.7 percent in June 2022 to 151.1 (2016=100), following a 1.0 percent increase in May. The LEI improved by 6.2 percent in the first half of 2022, slightly slower than its 6.5 percent growth over the second half of 2021.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India increased by 3.1 percent in June 2022 to 154.8 (2016=100), following a 1.2 percent increase in May. The CEI improved by 16.4 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, much faster than the 5.4 percent growth in the six-month period from June to December of 2021.

“The LEI for India increased again in June pointing to continued economic growth in the short term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “However, rising food and energy prices combined with slowing global growth will pose challenges to India’s economy in the second half of 2022. The Conference Board projects the Indian economy will grow by 7.4 percent in 2022 and slow to 4.6 percent in 2023.”

India LEI suggests the economy will continue expanding, but the pace of growth may moderate in 2022 

The increase in the India LEI was driven primarily by large contributions from the yield spread and money supply

The recent trajectory of the India LEI points to continued economic growth, but the pace could decelerate

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 1 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of business cycle peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector    , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

 To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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