Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 1.0 percent in June 2023 to 153.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.9 percent in May. As a result, the LEI improved by 2.6 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, slightly faster than the 2.1 percent growth rate over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India declined by 2.2 percent in June 2023 to 142.9 (2016=100), following a 3.1 percent increase in May. Despite last month’s decline, in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, the CEI improved by 4.8 percent - a partial recovery from the 8.0 percent contraction over the prior six-month period between June and December of 2022.

“The LEI for India improved for the third consecutive month in June based on preliminary data” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The recent gain in the LEI was driven mainly by increasing credit to the commercial sector, a more favorable exchange rate, and improving stock prices. Despite a softer external economic landscape, India’s growth should continue in 2023. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth of 5.8 in 2023 and 5.0 percent in 2024.”

The India LEI rose for the third consecutive month in June

Financial components continue to drive improvement in India’s LEI

The India LEI year-over-year appears to be reaching a bottom due to positive monthly prints

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector         , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org