Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 0.4 percent in May 2022 to 149.3 (2016=100), following a 2.1 percent increase in April. The LEI grew by 5.3 percent in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, slower than its 7.7 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India increased by 2.0 percent in May 2022 to 151.0 (2016=100), following a 3.1 percent increase in April. The CEI grew by 16.8 percent in the six-month period between November 2021 to May 2022, considerably slower than its 26.5 percent growth rate over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for India rose again in May pointing to continued economic growth in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Rising food and energy prices and the slowing global economy create headwinds for economic growth in 2022. Following real GDP growth of 8.3 percent year-over-year in 2021, The Conference Board projects the Indian economy will grow by 7.4 percent in 2022 and further slow to 4.6 percent in 2023.”

The India LEI suggests the economy will continue growing, but pace of growth could moderate in 2022 

The recent trajectory of the India LEI points to continued economic growth, but the path could be uneven

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 1 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of business cycle peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 36 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector, Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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