Global Leading Indicators

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 1.0 percent in November 2022 to 153.5 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decrease in October. The LEI improved by 2.5 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2022, slower than the 5.6 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India decreased by 2.1 percent in November 2022 to 140.7 (2016=100), following a 5.2 percent decline in October. The CEI decreased by 6.4 percent in the six-month period from May to November 2022, a sharp slowdown from the 16.2 percent increase in the six-month period from November 2021 to May 2022, which reflected a rapid rebound from the pandemic induced slowdown in 2021.

“The LEI for India increased in October, and the index has fluctuated around a slightly rising trajectory in recent months,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The LEI for India suggests economic growth may continue in the near term, but uncertainty remains. The real effective exchange rate was the only negative contributor in November. Despite the monthly increase, downside risks such as high inflation, declining international demand, and increasing recession risks globally may weigh on economic growth prospects for India. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth will slow to 4.6 percent in 2023, down from 7.9 in 2022.”

Despite the latest increase, the trajectory of the India LEI points to moderating economic growth

Over recent months, component contributions were mixed, with financial components offsetting broad declines in non-financial components

The India LEI increased in November but its growth trajectory has moderated in recent months

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 1 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector         , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

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