Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India rose slightly by 0.3 percent in October 2023 to 154.7 (2016=100), following two consecutive increases in September and August. Additionally, the LEI rose by 2.9 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2023, slightly higher than the 2.5 percent growth rate over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India increased by 4.2 percent in October 2023 to 149.8 (2016=100), more than reversing a 4.1 percent decrease in September. The CEI improved by 5.1 percent during the six-month period from April to October 2023, the same rate of increase as in the prior six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023.

“The India LEI increased slightly in October,” said Ian Hu, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Improvements were seen across the majority of the LEI’s components. However, services activity continued to be the greatest drag on the composite index for India, both on a monthly and six-month basis. Improvements in the coincident index, while not consistent over the past six months, help to confirm India’s robust pace of growth in 2023. As such, The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP to expand by 6.9 percent in 2023, but expects it will moderate to 5.1 percent in 2024, considering moderate improvements to the leading indicator.”

The India LEI rose marginally in October, following improvements in September and August

Bank credit to the commercial sector continued to drive much of the increase in the LEI

The annual growth rate ticked up slightly in October

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org