Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased by 0.9 percent in September 2022 to 153.4 (2016=100), following a 0.7 percent increase in August. The LEI improved by 5.0 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, faster than the 4.4 percent growth over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India increased by 0.7 percent in September 2022 to 149.1 (2016=100), following a 2.7 percent decline in August. The CEI increased by 3.6 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2022, a rapid slowdown from the 12.4 percent increase in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

“The LEI for India continued to grow in September, but the gains among its components were somewhat imbalanced with financial indicators improving more than nonfinancial indicators in recent months,” said Andrew Dearborn, Economic Research Assistant at The Conference Board. “The LEI for India suggests economic growth should continue, but it will likely moderate. High inflation, softening business activity in services, and increasing recession risks globally will weigh on growth prospects for India in the short term. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth will slow to 4.6 percent in 2023.”

The India LEI suggests the economy will continue expanding in the near term

Over the last six months financial components have more than offset weaknesses among non-financial components

The trajectory of the India LEI points to economic growth, but the pace could moderate

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for India: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 1 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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