Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for India increased slightly by 0.1 percent in September 2023 to 154.2 (2016=100), following an upwardly revised 0.9 percent increase in August. Additionally, the LEI rose by 3.1 percent in the six-month period from March to September 2023, more than twice the 1.4 percent growth rate over the previous six months.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for India declined by 2.0 percent in September 2023 to 145.7 (2016=100), following a 5.1 percent increase in August. The CEI improved by 4.6 percent during the six-month period from March to September 2023. A reversal from the 2.6 percent contraction over the prior six-month period between September 2022 and March of 2023.

“The India LEI increased slightly in September based on preliminary data,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Most of the improvement in September reflected positive contributions from bank credit, followed by much smaller contributions from a more positive yield spread, higher stock prices, and a firmer Services PMI print. The economic expansion should continue going into 2024. However, growth momentum will possibly fade due to a weakening external environment and lagged effects of monetary policy tightening. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP will expand by 6.9 percent in 2023 and moderate to 5.1 percent in 2024.”

The India LEI improved in September after an upward revision to August 

Bank credit to the commercial sector drove much of the September gain 

The annual growth rate has been flat since April of 2023

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for India

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 8 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The eight components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for India include: Interest rate spread, BSE: Index, REER: 40 Currencies, M3: Bank Credit to Commercial Sector , Merchandise Exports, Cargo Handled, IP-Capital Goods, and India PMI: Services Business Activity.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org