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The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world.
LEI for Mexico Decreased Again
Latest Press Release
Updated: Friday, July 19, 2024
For Release 11:00 AM ET, July 19, 2024
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.6 percent in May 2024 to 119.5 (2016=100), after decreasing by 0.2 percent in April. Overall, the LEI contracted by 1.5 percent over the six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024, following a 2.3 percent contraction over the previous six months.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.2 percent in May 2024 to 117.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.4 percent in April. As a result, the CEI expanded by 0.4 percent over the six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024, a slower rate of growth than the 1.4 percent increase over the previous six months.
“The Mexico LEI decreased in May for the fourth consecutive month,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Over the past six months, the manufacturing opinion balance was the main source of the weakness in the LEI. In May, the Index decrease can be attributed again to a weak opinion balance for manufacturing inventories but also to a lower price of oil and declining stock prices. Following the most recent decline, the six-month and annual growth rates remain negative, signaling continued headwinds ahead. The Conference Board currently expects an annual real GDP growth to slow to 2.1 percent in 2024 from 3.2 percent last year.”
The next release is scheduled for Tuesday, August 20, 2024, at 11 A.M. ET.
The Mexico LEI decreased again in May
Weakness in opinion balance for manufacturing inventories, price of oil, and stock prices drove the LEI’s decline in May
The annual growth rate of the LEI has become increasingly negative, pointing to headwinds in the near term
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Mexico
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around five months.
The six components of the Leading Economic Index® for Mexico are:
- Industrial Production (Construction)
- Stock Prices
- U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil
- Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance)
- Federal Funds Rate
- Real Exchange Rate
The three components of the Coincident Economic Index® for Mexico are:
- Industrial Production
- Retail Sales
- Employment, IMSS Beneficiaries
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
