Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 1.2 percent in April 2022 to 92.2 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decrease in March 2022. The LEI also declined by 1.4 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan remained unchanged in April 2022 at 99.9 (2016=100), following 0.2 percent increase in March 2022. The CEI increased by 0.9 percent in the six-month period from October 2021 to April 2022.

“The Japan LEI fell sharply in April as a result of weakening stock prices, housing construction, business expectations, and rising business failures,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “The recent trajectory of the LEI for Japan points to slow economic growth for Japan in the near term. Rising risks to global economic outlook due to high inflation, COVID-19 resurgence, supply chain disruptions, and tightening monetary policies around the world are creating headwinds for Japan’s economy. The Conference Board projects real GDP growth of 2.2 percent in Japan for 2022 and 1.4 percent for 2023.”

The recent trajectory of the Japan LEI continues to suggest downside risk to the outlook in 2022 

The Japan LEI points to slower economic growth amid increasing geopolitical tensions  

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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