Global Leading Indicators

Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan increased by 0.3 percent in July 2024 to 88.2 (2016=100), after a downwardly revised 0.9 percent decrease in June. Over the six-month period between January and July 2024, the LEI for Japan rose by 0.6 percent, after declining by 1.1 percent over the previous six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan also increased by 0.3 percent to 98.6 (2016=100) in July 2024, reversing a 0.3 percent decrease in June. As a result, the CEI grew by 0.7 percent over the six-month period from January to July 2024, after declining by 1.0 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The Japan LEI improved in July, but not enough to reverse the negative annual growth of the index, suggesting that economic expansion may continue to face some challenges in the near term,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Most components of the Japan LEI were positive in July, with the strongest gains coming from new orders for machinery and construction and the yield spread. However, the July recovery in new orders was only driven by the construction side, while machinery orders were lagging. Excluding the electric power industry, which invests heavily in renewable energy, the machinery orders in other industries were almost unchanged compared to last year, which suggests some weakness in business investment. The Conference Board currently expects very sluggish annual GDP growth in Japan in 2024.”

The next release is scheduled for Thursday, October 10, 2024, at 10:30 A.M. ET.

Both LEI and the CEI for Japan inched up in July