Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 0.3 percent in June 2023 to 88.9 (2016=100), partially reversing an increase of 0.6 percent in May. The LEI for Japan contracted by 0.9 percent in the six-month period ending in June 2023, following a 3.2 percent decline over the previous six months between June and December 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan improved slightly by 0.2 percent in June 2023 to 98.9 (2016=100), after being unchanged in May. The CEI for Japan fell by 0.2 percent over the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, after contracting by 1.2 percent in the previous six-month period between June and December 2022.

"The Japan LEI fell in June, partially reversing the previous month’s gain” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Weaknesses among the non-financial components of the LEI fueled the most recent decrease. Although seven out of ten components contributed positively to the index in the month, weak readings for business failures and housing starts more than offset the gains elsewhere. In the most recent forecast update, The Conference Board slightly upgraded the year-over-year real GDP growth forecast for Japan to 1.7 percent in 2023 from 1.5 percent but still projects a weaker reading of 0.9 percent for 2024.”

The LEI for Japan inched down in June

June’s decline was driven by business failures and weaker housing starts

The Japan LEI remains in negative growth territory, but may be stabilizing with fewer headwinds ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org