Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan decreased by 0.6 percent in March 2022 to 93.3 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent decrease in February 2022. However, the LEI improved by 0.5 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan increased by 0.1 percent in March 2022 to 99.7 (2016=100), following no change in February 2022. The CEI increased by 0.7 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

“The Japan LEI was essentially flat over recent months suggesting slower economic growth ahead in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economic Research, at The Conference Board. “Weakness in machinery and construction orders and rising business failures more than offset strength in housing construction and stock prices. The impact of the war in Ukraine on the global economy will likely increase the risks to the growth outlook in Japan.”

The recent trajectory of the Japan LEI still suggests risks to the outlook in 2022, with the war in Ukraine likely to increase downward pressure on growth

The Japan LEI points to slower economic growth amid increasing risks due to geopolitical tensions

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Japan: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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