Global Leading Indicators

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Japan increased slightly by 0.1 percent in September 2023 to 88.5 (2016=100). However due to downward revisions to July and August, the index is below the originally reported August figure of 88.6 (2016=100). As a result, the LEI for Japan declined by 0.1 percent in the six-month period ending in September 2023, following a 3.6 percent decline over the previous six months between September 2022 and March 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Japan remained unchanged in September 2023 at 99.3 (2016=100), after an increase of 0.1 percent in August. The CEI for Japan improved by 0.3 percent over the six-month period from March to September 2023, after contracting by 1.2 percent in the previous six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023.

“The LEI for Japan inched up in September, but due to downwardly revised July and August data, the index’s level is below the originally reported figure for August,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Most components of the Japan LEI improved somewhat in September, slightly offsetting declines in labor productivity, money supply, and housing starts, and. Still, the most recent reading pushed the leading index slightly into negative territory over the six-month basis, which signals fragility of economic growth. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth for Japan of 2.3 percent in 2023, and slower growth of 1.0 percent in 2024.”

The LEI for Japan inched up in September

Last month’s marginal improvement was driven by non-financial components

The annual growth for Japan’s LEI remains in negative territory, signaling fragile economic growth ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Japan

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by around 4 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Japan include: Operating Profits, Dwelling Units Started, Business Failures, Index of Overtime Worked, Stock Prices (TOPIX), Six Month Growth Rate of Labor Productivity, Tankan Business Conditions Survey, Money Supply, Yield Spread, and New Orders for Machinery and Construction.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org