Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.9 percent in December to 103.5 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent decline in November. The LEI is down by 2.6 percent in the six-month period from June to December, following a 2.7 percent decrease from December 2021 to June 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.4 percent in December to 105.8 (2016=100), following a 0.3 percent decrease in November. The CEI declined by 1.7 percent in the six-month period from June to December 2022, a reversal from the 1.0 percent increase over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for South Korea fell again in December, continuing its downward trajectory since February 2022” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst, at The Conference Board. “Declines in the LEI were led by falling value of machinery orders, slowing construction activity, and dropping stock prices. The LEI shows that slowdowns are taking place in both financial and nonfinancial sectors. The Conference Board projects year-over-year GDP growth to slow to 1.7 percent in 2023 due to weakening economic activity and declining demand around the globe.”

The Korea LEI fell further in December

Falling value of machinery orders and slowing construction activity led the decline

Year-over-year growth for Korea fell further into negative territory

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

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