Global Leading Indicators

For Release 10:30 AM ET, March 6, 2024

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.2 percent in January 2024 to 107.4 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.8 in December 2023 and 1.2 percent in November 2023. The LEI rose by 1.9 percent over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, following a slower rate of increase of 0.4 percent over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea remained unchanged at 108.1 (2016=100) in January 2024, after increasing by 0.3 percent December. Over the six-month period between July 2023 and January 2024, the CEI rose by 1.4 percent, following a decrease by 0.3 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The South Korea LEI decreased slightly in January after two consecutive months of increase,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “The January contraction in the LEI was mainly driven by an increase in the index of inventories to shipments and a decline in private construction orders, and to a lesser extent by lower stock prices and exports. Despite the January decline, on a six-month and an annual basis, the index is growing above its long-term trend, still suggesting a strong economic outlook for Korea. This is in line with The Conference Board current forecast of GDP growth accelerating to 1.8 percent in 2024 after 1.3 percent in 2023”.

The South Korea LEI Decreased in January

Declines in the inventories to shipments index and construction orders drove the January decrease in the LEI

The annual growth rate of the LEI slowed but is still robust

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for South Korea

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org