Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea remained unchanged in July at 105.8 (2016=100), following a 1.3 percent decrease in June. Moreover, the LEI decreased by 1.9 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, following a 1.6 percent decrease over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.1 percent in July 2022 to 107.4 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in June. The CEI grew by 0.8 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, following a 0.9 percent increase between July 2021 and January 2022.

“The LEI for South Korea remained unchanged in July according to preliminary figures, and still suggests risks of an economic slowdown are elevated in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Slowing global demand with pockets of recession in major economies, high inflation, and rising interest rates create headwinds to growth. The Conference Board forecasts year-over-year real GDP growth for South Korea of 2.6 percent, representing a downgrade from 3.1 percent projected earlier. Economic growth prospects for 2023 were also downgraded, down to 2.1 percent from 2.4 percent (year-over-year).”

The South Korea LEI remained on a downward trajectory suggesting economic risks remain elevated

Negative contributions from falling stock prices together with increasing inventories (inverted) outweighed positive contributions from all other components

The LEI trajectory points to rising risk of recession in the near-term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea release are those available “as of” 10:00 am ET on September 6, 2022. Some series are estimated as denoted by “**” in the chart above. The series in The Conference Board LEI for South Korea based on our estimates are value of machinery orders, manufacturing, and index of inventories to shipments, manufacturing.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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