Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 1.4 percent in June 2022 to 105.6 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decrease in May. Moreover, the LEI decreased by 2.9 percent in the first half of 2022, a larger change than the 1.0 percent decrease in the second half of 2021.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.4 percent in June 2022 to 107.5 (2016=100), a reversal from the 0.9 percent increase in May. The CEI grew by 0.7 percent in the six-month period from December 2021 to June 2022, following a 1.1 percent increase between June and December 2021.

“The LEI for South Korea fell for a third consecutive month in June, suggesting the increasing likelihood of an economic slowdown in the near term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Tightening monetary policy and high inflation will continue to pose headwinds to growth in the near-term. As a result of these challenges, The Conference Board downgraded the year-over-year real GDP growth projection for South Korea to 2.6 percent from 3.1 percent in 2022.”

The South Korea LEI decreased again in June, suggesting growth will moderate in the near-term

Negative contributions from all components contributed to the decline 

The LEI points to slow growth in the short-term and rising risk of recession

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

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