For Release 10:30 AM ET, August 7, 2024
Using the Composite Indexes: The Leading Economic Index (LEI) provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index®(LEI) for South Korea increased by 1.0 percent in June 2024 to 108.7 (2016=100), after being unchanged in May. As a result, the growth rate of LEI over the first half of 2024 grew by 1.0 percent, after growing at a slightly lower rate of 0.9 percent over the second half of last year.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for South Korea ticked up by 0.2 percent to 107.9 (2016=100) in June 2024, reversing the 0.2 percent (downwardly revised) decrease in May. Despite the most recent monthly gain, the CEI contracted by 0.2 percent over the first half of this year, a reversal from an expansion of 0.6 percent over the second half of 2023.
“The South Korea LEI increased substantially in June,” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Positive contributions from all components, save the neutral contribution from exports, led to the LEI’s gain. Most notably, there was a strong improvement in the inventory-to-shipment index in June, reflecting surges in shipments and sharp declines in inventories for tech products. While the annual growth of the LEI rate slowed a bit between April and June, it remained positive and suggested moderate growth ahead, after the quarter-on-quarter GDP contraction in Q2.”
The next release is scheduled for Friday, September 6, 2024, at 10:30 A.M. ET.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for South Korea
The composite economic indexes are key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. Comprised of multiple independent indicators, the indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component.
The CEI reflects current economic conditions and is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive tool that anticipates—or “leads”—turning points in the business cycle by around three months.
The six components of the Leading Economic Index® for South Korea are:
The four components of the Coincident Economic Index® for South Korea are:
To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers Trusted Insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. ConferenceBoard.org
With graph and summary table
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