Global Leading Indicators

Next month’s release of the composite economic indexes will incorporate annual benchmark revisions which bring them up-to-date with revisions in the source data. These revisions do not change the cyclical properties of the indexes. The indexes are updated throughout the year, but only for the previous six months. Data revisions that fall outside of the moving six-month window are not incorporated until the benchmark revision is made and the entire histories of the indexes are recomputed. As a result, the revised indexes, in levels and month-on-month changes, will not be directly comparable to those issued prior to the benchmark revision.

For more information, please visit https://www.conference-board.org/topics/business-cycle-indicators/ or contact us at indicators@conference-board.org.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for South Korea decreased by 1.8 percent in October to 103.6 (2016=100), following a 0.8 percent decline in September. The LEI is down by 3.4 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2022, greater than the 0.6 percent decrease over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for South Korea decreased by 0.7 percent in October to 106.2 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in September. The CEI declined by 1.5 percent in the six-month period from April to October 2022, a reversal from the 2.2 percent increase between October 2021 and April 2022.

“The LEI for South Korea declined sharply again in October, continuing its downward trajectory,” said Casey Cloutier, Economic Research Analyst, at The Conference Board. “All components except the index of inventories to shipments (inverted) contributed negatively to the index, suggesting that weak growth conditions are widespread throughout the economy. Shipments relative to inventories have posted back-to-back gains, but this doesn’t offset the overall weakness in this component nor is this trend likely to be sustainable in the longer term. As global trade weakens due to slowing demand and amid high inflation and tightening monetary policy, The Conference Board downgraded the year-over-year real GDP forecast for South Korea from 1.8 percent to 1.5 percent.”

The Korea LEI declined sharply in October

All LEI components contributed negatively to the index, except for Index of Inventories-to-Shipments and Value of Machinery Orders

The LEI trajectory points to an elevated risk of recession in the near-term

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 3 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for South Korea include: Stock Prices, Yield of Government Public Bonds, Exports FOB, Value of Machinery Orders, Index of Inventories to Shipments, Private Construction Orders.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

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