Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 0.2 percent in August 2023 to 111.1 (2016=100), after improving by 0.4 percent in July. The LEI rose by 0.3 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2023, a slightly slower rate than the 0.4 percent pace over the previous six-month period from August 2022 to February 2023.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 113.7 (2016=100), after also increasing by 0.4 percent in July. The CEI grew by 2.3 percent in the six-month period from February to August 2023, a faster rate than the 1.3 percent pace of growth over the previous six-month period.

“After three consecutive monthly increases, the Mexico LEI dipped in August” said Malala Lin, Economic Research Associate, at The Conference Board. “Most contributions to the LEI were negative or flat, with lower manufacturing inventories and stock prices leading the decline of the index. Still, except for manufacturing inventories, more components contributed positively to the six-month growth rate than negatively. Rising industrial production and a stronger currency fueled much of the advance in the six-month growth rate, suggesting conditions are generally improving for Mexico. The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP growth for Mexico of 3.3 percent in 2023, a slight upward revision from a previously reported 3.0 percent rate.

The Mexico LEI decreased in August while the CEI continued to rise

Declines in manufacturing inventories and stock prices drove the dip in the LEI in August

The positive trajectory of the Mexico LEI continued, suggesting growth ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org