Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico Increased in January

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) Mexico increased 0.6 percent in January 2022 to 109.2 (2016=100), following a 0.1 percent dip in December. However, the LEI declined by 0.6 percent in the six-month period from July 2021 to January 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased 0.4 percent in January 2022 to 107.0 (2016=100). The CEI grew by 1.4 percent in the six-month period from July 2021 to January 2022.

“In January, the rise in the LEI reflected positive oil price and real exchange rate contributions that more than offset negative contributions from the other components of the index. Despite the sizable increase in January, the Mexico LEI over the last six months suggested slower economic growth in the near-term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “The latest results do not reflect the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While the global economic effects of the war on supply chains and soaring energy, food, and metals prices all pose headwinds to overall global growth, rising oil prices could help offset some of the headwinds ahead for the Mexican economy.”

Despite the increase in January, the recent behavior of the leading indicators suggests downward risks to the outlook persist and could intensify

Mexico LEI pointed to slower economic growth amid increasing risks, which may increase as the Ukraine crisis unfolds

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 7 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of business cycle peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

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