Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico decreased by 1.5 percent in July 2022 to 107.5 (2016=100), after declining by 0.6 percent in June. The LEI contracted by 1.9 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, following a 0.3 percent decline over the previous six-month period.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.1 percent in July 2022 to 109.6 (2016=100), after a 0.5 percent increase in June. The CEI grew by 2.4 percent in the six-month period from January to July 2022, following a 1.4 percent improvement between July 2021 and January 2022.

“The LEI for Mexico decreased sharply in July, its fourth consecutive month of decline, suggesting heightened recession risk in the coming months,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Most components contributed negatively to the LEI, notably the acquisition cost of crude oil and manufacturing inventories. Rising inflation, tightening monetary policy, and an impending recession in the US may weigh on the outlook for Mexico. For these reasons, The Conference Board projects that economic growth will slow to 0.8 percent in 2023.”

Mexico LEI declined sharply in July, suggesting worsening economic prospects

Negative contributions from most LEI components caused the decline

The recent trajectory of the Mexico LEI suggests rising risk of recession in the coming months 

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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