Global Leading Indicators

About the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index:

The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. Additional details are below.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico was unchanged in June and in May 2023 (after revision) at 109.7 (2016=100). The LEI fell by 1.1 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, a slower rate than the 1.9 percent decline over the previous six-month period from June to December 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico rose by 0.5 percent in June 2023 to 112.8 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.4 percent in May. The CEI grew by 2.1 percent in the six-month period from December 2022 to June 2023, a faster rate than the increase of 1.1 percent over the previous six-month period.

“The LEI for Mexico remained unchanged in June and, after revisions to underlying data, has been at the same level since April 2023,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “The decline in manufacturing inventories was offset by a stronger peso versus the US dollar, increased industrial production in construction, and higher stock prices. The risk of a short and shallow recession in US may have less of an impact on Mexico’s economy than originally anticipated. For these reasons, The Conference Board projects year-over-year real GDP in 2023 to match the prior year’s 3.0 percent pace, but weaken in 2024.”

The Mexico LEI has been unchanged since April 2023 

Manufacturing inventories were the largest negative contributor to the LEI in June

Mexico LEI growth has been less negative, suggesting fewer headwinds ahead

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Mexico

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/

About The Conference Board

The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.tcb.org