Global Leading Indicators

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^®(LEI) for Mexico increased by 0.8 percent in March 2022 to 110.6 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent increase in February 2022. Moreover, the LEI grew by 1.1 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index^® (CEI) for Mexico increased by 0.4 percent in March 2022 to 108.0 (2016=100), after increasing by 0.6 percent in February 2022. The CEI grew by 2.0 percent in the six-month period from September 2021 to March 2022.

“The March gain in the Mexico LEI suggests  that the deceleration in economic growth may soon end ,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economic Research at The Conference Board. “Rising oil prices due to the war in Ukraine drove the LEI for Mexico higher However, higher inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions in manufacturing pose downside risks to Mexico’s economy.”

The LEI for Mexico increased in March primarily due to the positive impact of higher oil prices caused by the war in Ukraine

The recent trajectory of the Mexico LEI improved slightly suggesting deceleration in economic growth may soon end

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® (LEI) for Mexico: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The indexes are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning points in the economy in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component. The CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictive variable that anticipates (or “leads”) turning points in the business cycle by 5 months. Shaded areas denote recession periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded areas show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the business cycle.

The six components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index^® for Mexico include: Industrial Production (Construction), Stock Prices, U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil, Manufacturing Inventories (Opinion Balance), Federal Funds Rate, and Real Exchange Rate.

To access data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/    

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